Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MSST 28 – SC 31

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

SC -3

Sportsbooks make South Carolina Gamecocks the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 59.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 4:54 PM EDT

Our projected score

Mississippi State Bulldogs logo Mississippi State Bulldogs28

South Carolina Gamecocks logo South Carolina Gamecocks31

Final score

Mississippi State Bulldogs logo Mississippi State Bulldogs41

South Carolina Gamecocks logo South Carolina Gamecocks34

SEC Network — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks projection

Mississippi State Bulldogs visit South Carolina Gamecocks in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects MSST 28 – SC 31, a 3-point edge to South Carolina Gamecocks. DraftKings currently has SC -3.5 with a total of 59.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.52 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -3.5 / 59.5, which sat 3.125 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.52 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-3.5 / 59.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 59.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Low

Our projected combined score is 59 · Over win probability 50.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 124 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Mike Tyler — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SC
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
Mike Tyler scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Donovan Murph — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SC
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380
Donovan Murph scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Donovan Murph did not score a touchdown
J.J. Hill — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSST
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +370
J.J. Hill scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+370), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Isaiah Augustave — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SC
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +290
Isaiah Augustave scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+290), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Zion Ragins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSST
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +250
Zion Ragins scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+250), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Zion Ragins scored a touchdown
Sanfrisco Magee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSST
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +240
Sanfrisco Magee scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+240), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Sanfrisco Magee scored a touchdown