Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MTSU 16 – KU 36

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

KU -21

Sportsbooks make Kansas Jayhawks the favorite by 21. Expected combined score: 51.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 AM EDT

Our projected score

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders16

Kansas Jayhawks logo Kansas Jayhawks36

Final score

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders0

Kansas Jayhawks logo Kansas Jayhawks55

ESPNU — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks projection

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders visit Kansas Jayhawks in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects MTSU 16 – KU 36, a 20-point edge to Kansas Jayhawks. DraftKings currently has KU -21 with a total of 51.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.54 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -21 / 51.5, which sat 17.474 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.54 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-21 / 51.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

AJ Jones — Anytime touchdown: Yes+650DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result pending
Cam'ron Lacy — Anytime touchdown: Yes+130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result loss
Nahzae Cox — Anytime touchdown: Yes+400DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:07 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Tate Nagy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
KU
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +200
Tate Nagy scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Jalen Dupree — Anytime touchdown: Yes
KU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -115
Jalen Dupree scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 53% in the DraftKings price (-115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jalen Dupree scored a touchdown
Markus Allen — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MTSU
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +425
Markus Allen scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
AJ Jones — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MTSU
We project 0.51Recent average 0.45 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +650
AJ Jones scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 4 of 6 games last season (0.51 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 45% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Cam'ron Lacy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MTSU
We project 0.82Recent average 0.82 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +130
Cam'ron Lacy scored in 4 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 6 games last season (0.82 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 82% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cam'ron Lacy did not score a touchdown
Nahzae Cox — Anytime touchdown: Yes
KU
We project 0.32Recent average 0.32 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +400
Nahzae Cox scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 4 games last season (0.32 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 32% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Nahzae Cox scored a touchdown