Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MSU 18 – WIS 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

WIS -8.5

Sportsbooks make Wisconsin Badgers the favorite by 8.5. Expected combined score: 43.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Michigan State Spartans logo Michigan State Spartans18

Wisconsin Badgers logo Wisconsin Badgers26

Final score

Michigan State Spartans logo Michigan State Spartans3

Wisconsin Badgers logo Wisconsin Badgers31

BTN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers projection

Michigan State Spartans visit Wisconsin Badgers in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects MSU 18 – WIS 26, a 8-point edge to Wisconsin Badgers. DraftKings currently has WIS -8.5 with a total of 43.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 11 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.52 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -8.5 / 43.5, which sat 11.815 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.52 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-8.5 / 43.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Chris Brooks Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes+265DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 9:17 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Emmett Bork — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WIS
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +950
Emmett Bork scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 10% in the DraftKings price (+950), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Emmett Bork did not score a touchdown
Malachi Coleman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WIS
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Malachi Coleman scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Malachi Coleman scored a touchdown
Jaziun Patterson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSU
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +130
Jaziun Patterson scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jaziun Patterson did not score a touchdown
Rodney Bullard Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSU
We project 0.42Recent average 0.42 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +185
Rodney Bullard Jr. scored in 1 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.42 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 42% chance to score, against 35% in the DraftKings price (+185), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Rodney Bullard Jr. did not score a touchdown
Brandon Tullis — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSU
We project 0.17Recent average 0.17 over 8 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +800
Brandon Tullis scored in 0 of 2 games this season and in 2 of 6 games last season (0.17 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 17% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Brandon Tullis did not score a touchdown
Chris Brooks Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WIS
We project 0.39Recent average 0.39 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +265
Chris Brooks Jr. scored in 2 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 3 games last season (0.39 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 39% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+265), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chris Brooks Jr. did not score a touchdown