Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MSU 13 – ND 39

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ND -28.5

Sportsbooks make Notre Dame Fighting Irish the favorite by 28.5. Expected combined score: 51.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 7:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Michigan State Spartans logo Michigan State Spartans13

Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish39

Final score

Michigan State Spartans logo Michigan State Spartans10

Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish27

NBC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish projection

Michigan State Spartans visit Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects MSU 13 – ND 38, a 25-point edge to Notre Dame Fighting Irish. DraftKings currently has ND -28.5 with a total of 51.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.49 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -28.5 / 51.5, which sat 21.75 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.49 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-28.5 / 51.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 51.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 55 · Over win probability 55.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Cam Edwards — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSU
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +105
Cam Edwards scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 49% in the DraftKings price (+105), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cam Edwards did not score a touchdown
Fredrick Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
Fredrick Moore scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Fredrick Moore did not score a touchdown
Jordan Faison — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 1Recent average 0.75 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110
Jordan Faison scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 52% in the DraftKings price (-110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jordan Faison did not score a touchdown
Charles Taplin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1000
Charles Taplin scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 9% in the DraftKings price (+1000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
James Flanigan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +400
James Flanigan scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Cooper Flanagan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ND
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +180
Cooper Flanagan scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+180), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.