Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Michigan State Spartans +14
Michigan State Spartans is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 14 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 31, 2026 · 1:04 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
MICH -14
Sportsbooks make Michigan Wolverines the favorite by 14. Expected combined score: 40.5
DraftKings · updated Fri, 11:07 PM EST
Our projected score
Michigan State Spartans15
Michigan Wolverines25
Final score
Michigan State Spartans15
Michigan Wolverines6
Pick covered
Peacock — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026
Post-game: Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, Michigan State upset Michigan 15–6 in Ann Arbor. Catching 14 points on the tracked DraftKings line, the Spartans easily covered the spread and secured an outright victory, grading out as a clear win for our model's high-rated recommendation on Michigan State +14.
Our model identified meaningful value on the underdog before kickoff, projecting a 25–15 contest that was notably tighter than the market's two-touchdown spread. The projection hit Michigan State's exact offensive output of 15 points and correctly anticipated that the Spartans were undervalued relative to the market line.
Where the model missed was on the host side. Michigan generated just six points, falling well short of its 25-point projection and dragging the final total far below the anticipated range. While the model did not forecast an outright Spartans victory, siding with Michigan State's points against an inflated market number delivered the right side of the result.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines projection
Michigan State Spartans visit Michigan Wolverines in NCAA Football on Saturday, November 7, 2026. The projection on file reads MSU 20 – MICH 25, a 5-point edge to Michigan Wolverines. DraftKings currently has MICH -14 with a total of 39.5.
This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 15 – 25 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread -14, total 39.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 20 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 6.34 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 7.5 points from the market.
- Model rating: high.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Michigan State Spartans +14
- DraftKings +14 · tracked Sat, 5:07 AM EDT
- Locked price -105
- Rating high
- Locked Oct 31, 1:04 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Jaziun Patterson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+280DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 7:18 PM EST · result pending
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- MICH
Salesi Moa — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600Salesi Moa scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Salesi Moa did not score a touchdown
- MSU
Cam Fancher — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.2Recent average 0.2 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750Cam Fancher scored in 1 of 5 games this season (0.2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 20% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- MICH
Tommy Carr — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +130Tommy Carr scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Tommy Carr did not score a touchdown
- MICH
Jordan Marshall — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.64Recent average 0.62 over 15 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings -135Jordan Marshall scored in 5 of 8 games this season and in 4 of 7 games last season (0.64 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 62% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jordan Marshall did not score a touchdown
- MSU
Fredrick Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 8 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +425Fredrick Moore scored in 2 of 8 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Fredrick Moore did not score a touchdown
- MSU
Jaziun Patterson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +280Jaziun Patterson scored in 3 of 6 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+280), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Michigan State Spartans
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Michigan State Spartans picks & results
Home team
Michigan Wolverines
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Michigan Wolverines picks & results
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