Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

M-OH 19 – CIN 31

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

CIN -14.5

Sportsbooks make Cincinnati Bearcats the favorite by 14.5. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Miami (OH) RedHawks logo Miami (OH) RedHawks19

Cincinnati Bearcats logo Cincinnati Bearcats31

Final score

Miami (OH) RedHawks logo Miami (OH) RedHawks31

Cincinnati Bearcats logo Cincinnati Bearcats35

ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats projection

Miami (OH) RedHawks visit Cincinnati Bearcats in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects M-OH 19 – CIN 31, a 12-point edge to Cincinnati Bearcats. DraftKings currently has CIN -14.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.56 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -14.5 / 50.5, which sat 15.944 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.56 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-14.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 50.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 58 · Over win probability 62.6%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Lyviel Waters — Anytime touchdown: Yes
CIN
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Lyviel Waters scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Christian Ross — Anytime touchdown: Yes
M-OH
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Christian Ross scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Damarion Witten — Anytime touchdown: Yes
M-OH
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +425
Damarion Witten scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 19% in the DraftKings price (+425), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Damarion Witten did not score a touchdown
JV Gibson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
CIN
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +165
JV Gibson scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+165), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: JV Gibson scored a touchdown
D'Shawntae Jones — Anytime touchdown: Yes
M-OH
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +115
D'Shawntae Jones scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: D'Shawntae Jones did not score a touchdown
Zion Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
CIN
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310
Zion Johnson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Zion Johnson did not score a touchdown