Post-game analysisNCAA FootballFriday, September 18, 2026Final

Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MIA 33 – WAKE 28

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

MIA -20.5

Sportsbooks make Miami Hurricanes the favorite by 20.5. Expected combined score: 55.5

DraftKings · updated Fri, 7:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Miami Hurricanes logo Miami Hurricanes33

Wake Forest Demon Deacons logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons28

Final score

Miami Hurricanes logo Miami Hurricanes33

Wake Forest Demon Deacons logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons20

ESPN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 18, 2026

Preview: Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons projection

Miami Hurricanes visit Wake Forest Demon Deacons in NCAA Football on Friday, September 18, 2026. Our model projects MIA 38 – WAKE 18, a 20-point edge to Miami Hurricanes. DraftKings currently has WAKE +20.5 with a total of 56.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.86 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +20.5 / 56.5, which sat 21.521 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.86 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (20.5 / 56.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 55.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 61 · Over win probability 58.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Somourian Wingo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
Somourian Wingo scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Vandrevius Jacobs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +290
Vandrevius Jacobs scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+290), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Joshua Moore — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +225
Joshua Moore scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 31% in the DraftKings price (+225), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Joshua Moore scored a touchdown
Bryce Kania — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WAKE
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +700
Bryce Kania has scored in 1 of his last 1 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Gio Lopez — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WAKE
We project 2Recent average 2 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +215
Gio Lopez has scored in 1 of his last 1 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 86% chance to score, against 32% in the DraftKings price (+215), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Gio Lopez did not score a touchdown
Ty Clark III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WAKE
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +155
Ty Clark III has scored in 1 of his last 1 games, and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ty Clark III did not score a touchdown