Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico Lobos

Mercyhurst Lakers visit New Mexico Lobos in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects MERC 8 – UNM 47, a 39-point edge to New Mexico Lobos. DraftKings currently has UNM -42.5 with a total of 54.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 2 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.01 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -42.5 / 54.5, which sat 25.363 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.01 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-42.5 / 54.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.