Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers
Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
MEM 36 – CLT 17
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
MEM -20.5
Sportsbooks make Memphis Tigers the favorite by 20.5. Expected combined score: 51.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 10:07 AM EDT
Our projected score
Memphis Tigers36
Charlotte 49ers17
Final score
Memphis Tigers59
Charlotte 49ers8
ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026
Preview: Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers projection
Memphis Tigers visit Charlotte 49ers in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects MEM 36 – CLT 17, a 19-point edge to Memphis Tigers. DraftKings currently has CLT +20.5 with a total of 51.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 2.22 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +20.5 / 51.5, which sat 9.064 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 2.22 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (20.5 / 51.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- MEM
Hunter Tipton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -105Hunter Tipton scored in 3 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 51% in the DraftKings price (-105), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Hunter Tipton scored 2 touchdowns
- MEM
Stonka Burnside — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320Stonka Burnside scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Stonka Burnside scored a touchdown
- MEM
Jaylin Carter — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.75Recent average 1 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -650Jaylin Carter scored in 4 of 4 games this season (1.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 87% in the DraftKings price (-650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jaylin Carter did not score a touchdown
- CLT
Khamani Alexander — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +125Khamani Alexander scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Khamani Alexander did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Memphis Tigers
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Memphis Tigers picks & results
Home team
Charlotte 49ers
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Charlotte 49ers picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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