Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, November 7, 2026Final

Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026

The pick

Take Maryland Terrapins +7

Maryland Terrapins is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 7 points.

Pick locked in: Nov 1, 2026 · 11:08 AM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: low

The betting line

PUR -5.5

Sportsbooks make Purdue Boilermakers the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 57.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 12:08 PM EST

Our projected score

Maryland Terrapins logo Maryland Terrapins27

Purdue Boilermakers logo Purdue Boilermakers34

Final score

Maryland Terrapins logo Maryland Terrapins34

Purdue Boilermakers logo Purdue Boilermakers29

Pick covered

BTN — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026

Post-game: Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers

On Saturday, November 7, 2026, the Maryland Terrapins secured a 34–29 road victory over the Purdue Boilermakers. Backing Maryland at the tracked line of +7 delivered a clear win, as the Terrapins covered the DraftKings spread with room to spare and took the contest outright.

Our statistical model anticipated a competitive, high-scoring matchup, projecting a 34–27 Purdue win against the 57.5 market total. Maryland's offense outperformed its 27-point forecast, while Purdue finished just short of its projected output. The model correctly recognized that Maryland had enough scoring punch to stay within a touchdown, even though it missed on the outright upset.

The projection carried a low rating, reflecting an effective history of 7.16 weighted games built from opponent-adjusted game dates and final scores from the current and discounted prior season blended with market numbers. While the model leaned toward a narrow Purdue victory, Maryland taking the game outright produced a clean cover for the tracked pick.

Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026

Preview: Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers

The CoveredSports model projects a 34–27 victory for Purdue when they host the Maryland Terrapins this Saturday. We tracked the line at Maryland +7, and the model’s projected seven-point margin matches that spread directly, landing right on the tracked number while projecting 61 combined points against the market total of 57.5.

The projection runs on version cs-ncaaf-2026.09.3, evaluating 40 completed games across the current and discounted prior seasons with opponent adjustments. That database yields an effective sample of 7.16 weighted games. Before incorporating a 40% anchor toward the live DraftKings figures, the independent projection differed from the market spread by only 0.4 points.

Given the tight alignment with the market line and an effective sample that sits on the thinner side, the model assigns a low rating to this game. We are siding with Maryland at the tracked +7, recognizing that the projection reflects a balanced statistical estimate rather than a certainty.

How the model got here

Projected score: 27 – 34 (away – home).
Current DraftKings number used: spread -7, total 57.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
Completed games on file: 20 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 7.16 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 0.4 points from the market.
Model rating: low — 7.16 weighted games of history on both sides; score anchored 40% to the DraftKings number (-7 / 57.5); low: 0.3 points of retained edge. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

DeJuan Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes+105DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 9:15 PM EST · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Harry Dalton III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MD
We project 1Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +250
Harry Dalton III scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+250), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Antonio Harris — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 12 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +255
Antonio Harris scored in 2 of 6 games this season and in 2 of 6 games last season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+255), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Antonio Harris did not score a touchdown
George Burhenn — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 0.29Recent average 0.29 over 7 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +330
George Burhenn scored in 2 of 7 games this season (0.29 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 29% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+330), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: George Burhenn did not score a touchdown
De'Nylon Morrissette — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PUR
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +400
De'Nylon Morrissette scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: De'Nylon Morrissette did not score a touchdown
DeJuan Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MD
We project 0.92Recent average 0.75 over 12 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +105
DeJuan Williams scored in 4 of 5 games this season and in 3 of 7 games last season (0.92 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 49% in the DraftKings price (+105), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: DeJuan Williams scored a touchdown