Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

MRSH 29 – MOST 24

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

MRSH -4

Sportsbooks make Marshall Thundering Herd the favorite by 4. Expected combined score: 52.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT

Our projected score

Marshall Thundering Herd logo Marshall Thundering Herd29

Missouri State Bears logo Missouri State Bears24

Final score

Marshall Thundering Herd logo Marshall Thundering Herd30

Missouri State Bears logo Missouri State Bears24

CBSSN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears projection

Marshall Thundering Herd visit Missouri State Bears in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects MRSH 29 – MOST 24, a 5-point edge to Marshall Thundering Herd. DraftKings currently has MOST +4 with a total of 52.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.56 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +4 / 52.5, which sat 3.008 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.56 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (4 / 52.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 52.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Low

Our projected combined score is 53 · Under win probability 50.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Isaiah Myers — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MOST
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
Isaiah Myers scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Isaiah Myers did not score a touchdown
Connor Lair — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MOST
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Connor Lair scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Connor Lair did not score a touchdown
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MRSH
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +155
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw did not score a touchdown

Records & form

How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.

Our College Football record

3-2

60% of graded picks covered

Road team

Marshall Thundering Herd

Record 1-0

Against the spread 1-0 (100%)

See all Marshall Thundering Herd picks & results

Home team

Missouri State Bears

Record 0-1

Against the spread 0-1 (0%)

See all Missouri State Bears picks & results

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