Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

LSU 30 – MISS 28

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

LSU -3

Sportsbooks make LSU Tigers the favorite by 3. Expected combined score: 58.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 7:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

LSU Tigers logo LSU Tigers30

Ole Miss Rebels logo Ole Miss Rebels28

Final score

LSU Tigers logo LSU Tigers24

Ole Miss Rebels logo Ole Miss Rebels32

ABC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels projection

LSU Tigers visit Ole Miss Rebels in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects LSU 30 – MISS 28, a 2-point edge to LSU Tigers. DraftKings currently has MISS +3 with a total of 58.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 15 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.63 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +3 / 58.5, which sat 8.82 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.63 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (3 / 58.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 58.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Low

Our projected combined score is 59 · Over win probability 50.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Horatio Fields — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MISS
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320
Horatio Fields scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Horatio Fields did not score a touchdown
Trey'Dez Green — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LSU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +130
Trey'Dez Green scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Trey'Dez Green did not score a touchdown
Johntay Cook II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MISS
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450
Johntay Cook II scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Johntay Cook II did not score a touchdown
Caleb Odom — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MISS
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380
Caleb Odom scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Caleb Odom did not score a touchdown
Sam Leavitt — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LSU
We project 2.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -120
Sam Leavitt scored in 2 of 2 games this season (2.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 55% in the DraftKings price (-120), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Sam Leavitt scored a touchdown
Phillip Wright III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LSU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Phillip Wright III scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.