Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor Bears

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

LT 18 – BAY 33

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

BAY -19.5

Sportsbooks make Baylor Bears the favorite by 19.5. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs logo Louisiana Tech Bulldogs18

Baylor Bears logo Baylor Bears33

Final score

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs logo Louisiana Tech Bulldogs19

Baylor Bears logo Baylor Bears36

ESPNU — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor Bears projection

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs visit Baylor Bears in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects LT 18 – BAY 33, a 15-point edge to Baylor Bears. DraftKings currently has BAY -19.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.52 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -19.5 / 50.5, which sat 29.497 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.52 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-19.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 50.5 — Over -110 / Under -110.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 57 · Over win probability 61.2%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Dedrick Latulas — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LT
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1400
Dedrick Latulas scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 7% in the DraftKings price (+1400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Jay Wilkerson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LT
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1000
Jay Wilkerson scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 9% in the DraftKings price (+1000), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jay Wilkerson did not score a touchdown
Jalen Mickens — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LT
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +450
Jalen Mickens scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 18% in the DraftKings price (+450), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jalen Mickens scored a touchdown
Nate Bennett — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BAY
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +245
Nate Bennett scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+245), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Nate Bennett scored a touchdown
Jayden McGowan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BAY
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +185
Jayden McGowan scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 35% in the DraftKings price (+185), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jayden McGowan scored 2 touchdowns