Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Northwestern Wildcats -2.5
Northwestern Wildcats is the favorite: your bet wins if they win by more than 2.5 points.
Pick locked in: Oct 31, 2026 · 1:04 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: low
The betting line
IOWA -2.5
Sportsbooks make Iowa Hawkeyes the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 43.5
DraftKings · updated Fri, 11:07 PM EST
Our projected score
Iowa Hawkeyes20
Northwestern Wildcats24
Final score
Iowa Hawkeyes24
Northwestern Wildcats10
Pick missed
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Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026
Post-game: Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, the Iowa Hawkeyes defeated the Northwestern Wildcats 24–10. Our model backed Northwestern on the tracked DraftKings spread of -2.5, resulting in an outright loss as the Wildcats failed to cover.
Our projection had anticipated a tight 24–20 victory for Northwestern, built from opponent-adjusted score distributions across current and discounted prior-season schedule results. The model came relatively close on Iowa’s scoring baseline—projecting 20 points against the 24 the Hawkeyes scored—but it significantly overestimated Northwestern's offensive output, which fell well short of expectations.
Given the low confidence rating and a thinner effective sample of recent games, the projection incorporated a 40% market anchor to moderate the disagreement with the line. Even with that market blend, the projection remained overly optimistic on the home team. Iowa dictated the scoring margin throughout, leaving our recommendation decisively on the wrong side of the final outcome.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats projection
Iowa Hawkeyes visit Northwestern Wildcats in NCAA Football on Saturday, November 7, 2026. The projection on file reads IOWA 24 – NU 28, a 4-point edge to Northwestern Wildcats. DraftKings currently has NU -2.5 with a total of 42.5.
This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
How the model got here
- Projected score: 20 – 24 (away – home).
- Current DraftKings number used: spread -2.5, total 42.5, and the projected score is blended 40% toward it.
- Completed games on file: 20 for the home side and 20 for the away side, worth 6.31 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay.
- Before anchoring, the projection built from those completed scores sat 2.3 points from the market.
- Model rating: low — 6.31 weighted games of history on both sides; score anchored 40% to the DraftKings number (-2.5 / 42.5); low: 1.4 points of retained edge. No side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Aidan Chiles — Anytime touchdown: Yes+125DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 7:18 PM EST · result pending
- Alex Honig — Anytime touchdown: Yes+235DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 7:18 PM EST · result pending
- Caleb Komolafe — Anytime touchdown: Yes+135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 3, 7:18 PM EST · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- IOWA
Reece Vander Zee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.49Recent average 0.37 over 15 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +260Reece Vander Zee scored in 3 of 8 games this season and in 1 of 7 games last season (0.49 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 37% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+260), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Reece Vander Zee did not score a touchdown
- NU
Aidan Chiles — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.25Recent average 1 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +125Aidan Chiles scored in 8 of 8 games this season (1.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- NU
Alex Honig — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.43Recent average 0.43 over 7 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +235Alex Honig scored in 3 of 7 games this season (0.43 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 43% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- NU
Caleb Komolafe — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.65Recent average 0.63 over 14 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +135Caleb Komolafe scored in 5 of 8 games this season and in 5 of 6 games last season (0.65 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 63% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Caleb Komolafe did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Iowa Hawkeyes picks & results
Home team
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Northwestern Wildcats picks & results
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