Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

IOWA 25 – MICH 26

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

MICH -5.5

Sportsbooks make Michigan Wolverines the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 38.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 9:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Iowa Hawkeyes logo Iowa Hawkeyes25

Michigan Wolverines logo Michigan Wolverines26

Final score

Iowa Hawkeyes logo Iowa Hawkeyes20

Michigan Wolverines logo Michigan Wolverines19

CBS — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines projection

Iowa Hawkeyes visit Michigan Wolverines in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects IOWA 25 – MICH 26, a 1-point edge to Michigan Wolverines. DraftKings currently has MICH -5.5 with a total of 38.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.61 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.61 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 24 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Jordan Marshall — Anytime touchdown: Yes-110DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 9:46 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Salesi Moa — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MICH
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +800
Salesi Moa scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+800), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Dayton Howard — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IOWA
We project 0.35Recent average 0.35 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1700
Dayton Howard scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 2 games last season (0.35 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 35% chance to score, against 6% in the DraftKings price (+1700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Addison Ostrenga — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IOWA
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Addison Ostrenga scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Addison Ostrenga did not score a touchdown
JJ Buchanan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MICH
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +200
JJ Buchanan scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: JJ Buchanan scored 2 touchdowns
Hank Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes
IOWA
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +340
Hank Brown scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 23% in the DraftKings price (+340), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Hank Brown did not score a touchdown
Jordan Marshall — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MICH
We project 0.92Recent average 0.71 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -110
Jordan Marshall scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 4 of 5 games last season (0.92 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 71% chance to score, against 52% in the DraftKings price (-110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jordan Marshall did not score a touchdown