Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
ILL 19 – OSU 33
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
OSU -26.5
Sportsbooks make Ohio State Buckeyes the favorite by 26.5. Expected combined score: 53.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 5:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Illinois Fighting Illini19
Ohio State Buckeyes33
Final score
Illinois Fighting Illini19
Ohio State Buckeyes42
Fox — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026
Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes projection
Illinois Fighting Illini visit Ohio State Buckeyes in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects ILL 19 – OSU 33, a 14-point edge to Ohio State Buckeyes. DraftKings currently has OSU -26.5 with a total of 53.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 15 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.65 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.65 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 28 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
- Kaden Feagin — Anytime touchdown: Yes+700DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 9:08 PM EDT · result pending
- Collin Dixon — Anytime touchdown: Yes+170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 9:08 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- OSU
Legend Bey — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +285Legend Bey scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+285), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- OSU
Brandon Inniss — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.37Recent average 0.37 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +230Brandon Inniss scored in 1 of 3 games this season and in 3 of 7 games last season (0.37 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 37% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+230), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- OSU
Chris Henry Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320Chris Henry Jr. scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chris Henry Jr. did not score a touchdown
- ILL
Jordan Anderson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.42Recent average 0.42 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +850Jordan Anderson scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (0.42 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 42% chance to score, against 11% in the DraftKings price (+850), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Jordan Anderson scored a touchdown
- ILL
Kaden Feagin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.42Recent average 0.42 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +700Kaden Feagin scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 3 of 5 games last season (0.42 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 42% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- ILL
Collin Dixon — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.66Recent average 0.79 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +170Collin Dixon scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 2 of 5 games last season (1.66 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 79% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Collin Dixon did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Illinois Fighting Illini picks & results
Home team
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 0-1
Against the spread 0-1 (0%)
See all Ohio State Buckeyes picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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