Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Georgia State Panthers at UCF Knights

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

GAST 17 – UCF 34

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

UCF -17.5

Sportsbooks make UCF Knights the favorite by 17.5. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT

Our projected score

Georgia State Panthers logo Georgia State Panthers17

UCF Knights logo UCF Knights34

Final score

Georgia State Panthers logo Georgia State Panthers30

UCF Knights logo UCF Knights44

ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Georgia State Panthers at UCF Knights projection

Georgia State Panthers visit UCF Knights in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects GAST 17 – UCF 34, a 17-point edge to UCF Knights. DraftKings currently has UCF -17.5 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.60 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -17.5 / 50.5, which sat 16.194 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.60 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-17.5 / 50.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 50.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 56 · Over win probability 59.7%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Waden Charles — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +235
Waden Charles scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Waden Charles scored a touchdown
Lanear McCrary Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
GAST
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
Lanear McCrary Jr. scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Lanear McCrary Jr. did not score a touchdown
Qwantavius Wiggins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
GAST
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
Qwantavius Wiggins scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Qwantavius Wiggins scored a touchdown
Agyeman Addae — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCF
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +360
Agyeman Addae scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Dennis Murray Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
GAST
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +250
Dennis Murray Jr. scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 29% in the DraftKings price (+250), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Jonathan Bibbs — Anytime touchdown: Yes
UCF
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +320
Jonathan Bibbs scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+320), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.