Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

FRES 27 – SJSU 22

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

FRES -4.5

Sportsbooks make Fresno State Bulldogs the favorite by 4.5. Expected combined score: 47.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 10:34 PM EDT

Our projected score

Fresno State Bulldogs logo Fresno State Bulldogs27

San José State Spartans logo San José State Spartans22

Final score

Fresno State Bulldogs logo Fresno State Bulldogs26

San José State Spartans logo San José State Spartans10

FS1 — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans projection

Fresno State Bulldogs visit San José State Spartans in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects FRES 27 – SJSU 22, a 5-point edge to Fresno State Bulldogs. DraftKings currently has SJSU +5.5 with a total of 48.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.62 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of +5.5 / 48.5, which sat 5.574 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.62 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (5.5 / 48.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 47.5 — Over -115 / Under -105.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 53 · Over win probability 55.3%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. the total is 424 minutes old, past the staleness limit.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jayden Mandal — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FRES
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
Jayden Mandal scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jayden Mandal did not score a touchdown
Josiah Freeman — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FRES
We project 0.7Recent average 0.7 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +175
Josiah Freeman scored in 0 of 1 game this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.7 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 70% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Josiah Freeman scored a touchdown
Jordan Anderson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SJSU
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380
Jordan Anderson scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jordan Anderson did not score a touchdown
Jase Nix — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SJSU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +600
Jase Nix scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 14% in the DraftKings price (+600), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Cooper Hoch — Anytime touchdown: Yes
SJSU
We project 1Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +195
Cooper Hoch scored in 2 of 3 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+195), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cooper Hoch did not score a touchdown
Ezekiel Avit — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FRES
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 3 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +390
Ezekiel Avit scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ezekiel Avit did not score a touchdown