Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

FLA 32 – MIZ 27

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

FLA -5.5

Sportsbooks make Florida Gators the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 57.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Florida Gators logo Florida Gators32

Missouri Tigers logo Missouri Tigers27

Final score

Florida Gators logo Florida Gators17

Missouri Tigers logo Missouri Tigers45

ABC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers projection

Florida Gators visit Missouri Tigers in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects FLA 32 – MIZ 27, a 5-point edge to Florida Gators. DraftKings currently has MIZ +5.5 with a total of 57.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.59 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +5.5 / 57.5, which sat 2.699 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.59 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (5.5 / 57.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Donovan Olugbode — Anytime touchdown: Yes+130DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Oct 3, 12:18 PM EDT · result win
Dallas Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes+135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Oct 3, 12:18 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Aaron Philo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FLA
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +155
Aaron Philo scored in 3 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Aaron Philo did not score a touchdown
Cayden Lee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIZ
We project 1Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +115
Cayden Lee scored in 3 of 4 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Cayden Lee did not score a touchdown
Shaun Terry II — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIZ
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +390
Shaun Terry II scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Duke Clark — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FLA
We project 0.78Recent average 0.59 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +105
Duke Clark scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.78 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 59% chance to score, against 49% in the DraftKings price (+105), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Duke Clark did not score a touchdown
Donovan Olugbode — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MIZ
We project 1.02Recent average 0.82 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +130
Donovan Olugbode scored in 4 of 4 games this season and in 1 of 5 games last season (1.02 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 82% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Donovan Olugbode scored a touchdown
Dallas Wilson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FLA
We project 0.59Recent average 0.59 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +135
Dallas Wilson scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 2 games last season (0.59 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 59% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Dallas Wilson scored a touchdown