Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats

The Kentucky Wildcats host the Florida Gators this Saturday, November 14, 2026. Our statistical model projects a final score of Kentucky 30, Florida 28. That two-point projected margin points toward a narrow cover for the Wildcats against the tracked DraftKings spread of -1.5 that we took.

The projected 58 combined points leans slightly above the listed total of 55.5. The active model blends its independent score 40% toward the DraftKings market line. Prior to that market anchoring step, the independent projection differed from the spread by 0.89 points, aligning relatively closely with the market consensus.

This pick carries a low model rating. The calculation relies on 40 completed games across the current and prior seasons, applying opponent adjustments and discounting older dates to produce an effective sample of 7.00 weighted games. Given the projected edge of just half a point past the tracked spread, statistical outcomes remain subject to standard game-to-game variance.