Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

FLA 28 – AUB 25

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

FLA -2.5

Sportsbooks make Florida Gators the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 52.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT

Our projected score

Florida Gators logo Florida Gators28

Auburn Tigers logo Auburn Tigers25

Final score

Florida Gators logo Florida Gators44

Auburn Tigers logo Auburn Tigers39

ESPN, ERADM — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers projection

Florida Gators visit Auburn Tigers in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects FLA 28 – AUB 25, a 3-point edge to Florida Gators. DraftKings currently has AUB +2.5 with a total of 52.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 11 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.44 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +2.5 / 52.5, which sat 1.988 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.44 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (2.5 / 52.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 52.5 — Over -112 / Under -108.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 58 · Over win probability 56.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

DeShawn Spencer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AUB
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
DeShawn Spencer scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: DeShawn Spencer scored a touchdown
Aaron Philo — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FLA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +235
Aaron Philo scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 30% in the DraftKings price (+235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Aaron Philo did not score a touchdown
Vernell Brown III — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FLA
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +135
Vernell Brown III scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 43% in the DraftKings price (+135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Vernell Brown III did not score a touchdown
Jonathan Echols — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AUB
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +700
Jonathan Echols scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Byrum Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AUB
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -140
Byrum Brown scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 58% in the DraftKings price (-140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Byrum Brown scored a touchdown
Bailey Stockton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
FLA
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +400
Bailey Stockton scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+400), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Bailey Stockton did not score a touchdown