East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels

East Tennessee State Buccaneers visit North Carolina Tar Heels in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects ETSU 10 – UNC 44, a 34-point edge to North Carolina Tar Heels. DraftKings currently has UNC -35.5 with a total of 54.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 1 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.04 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -35.5 / 54.5, which sat 33.209 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.04 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-35.5 / 54.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.