East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion Monarchs
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
ECU 23 – ODU 26
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
ODU -2.5
Sportsbooks make Old Dominion Monarchs the favorite by 2.5. Expected combined score: 48.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 5:56 PM EDT
Our projected score
East Carolina Pirates23
Old Dominion Monarchs26
Final score
East Carolina Pirates20
Old Dominion Monarchs17
ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026
Preview: East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion Monarchs projection
East Carolina Pirates visit Old Dominion Monarchs in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects ECU 23 – ODU 26, a 3-point edge to Old Dominion Monarchs. DraftKings currently has ODU -2.5 with a total of 48.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.63 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -2.5 / 48.5, which sat 3.985 points from what the completed scores alone implied.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.63 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-2.5 / 48.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- ODU
Quinn Henicle — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1.5Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -175Quinn Henicle scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 64% in the DraftKings price (-175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Quinn Henicle scored a touchdown
- ODU
Leon Haughton Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +370Leon Haughton Jr. scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+370), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Leon Haughton Jr. did not score a touchdown
- ODU
TJ Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +205TJ Johnson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+205), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- ECU
Jeremiah Melvin — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +170Jeremiah Melvin scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- ECU
Jason Dickerson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650Jason Dickerson scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jason Dickerson did not score a touchdown
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
East Carolina Pirates
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all East Carolina Pirates picks & results
Home team
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 1-0
Against the spread 1-0 (100%)
See all Old Dominion Monarchs picks & results
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