Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini

Duke Blue Devils visit Illinois Fighting Illini in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 12, 2026. Our model projects DUKE 23 – ILL 29, a 6-point edge to Illinois Fighting Illini. DraftKings currently has ILL -6.5 with a total of 51.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 15 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.65 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -6.5 / 51.5, which sat 4.655 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.65 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-6.5 / 51.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.