Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

COLO 23 – BAY 27

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

BAY -10

Sportsbooks make Baylor Bears the favorite by 10. Expected combined score: 55.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 9:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Colorado Buffaloes logo Colorado Buffaloes23

Baylor Bears logo Baylor Bears27

Final score

Colorado Buffaloes logo Colorado Buffaloes13

Baylor Bears logo Baylor Bears23

ESPN2 — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears projection

Colorado Buffaloes visit Baylor Bears in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects COLO 23 – BAY 27, a 4-point edge to Baylor Bears. DraftKings currently has BAY -10 with a total of 55.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 11 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.53 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.53 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 33 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Joseph Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes+210DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 3:17 PM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Ernest Campbell — Anytime touchdown: Yes
COLO
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Ernest Campbell scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Jayden McGowan — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BAY
We project 2Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +140
Jayden McGowan scored in 2 of 2 games this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jayden McGowan did not score a touchdown
Charlie Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
COLO
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +750
Charlie Williams scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Louis Brown IV — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BAY
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
Louis Brown IV scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Louis Brown IV did not score a touchdown
Joseph Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
COLO
We project 0.77Recent average 0.55 over 6 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +210
Joseph Williams scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 1 of 3 games last season (0.77 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 55% chance to score, against 32% in the DraftKings price (+210), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Joseph Williams scored a touchdown