Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

BUFF 22 – PSU 30

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

PSU -39.5

Sportsbooks make Penn State Nittany Lions the favorite by 39.5. Expected combined score: 48.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:07 AM EDT

Our projected score

Buffalo Bulls logo Buffalo Bulls22

Penn State Nittany Lions logo Penn State Nittany Lions30

Final score

Buffalo Bulls logo Buffalo Bulls13

Penn State Nittany Lions logo Penn State Nittany Lions55

BTN — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions projection

Buffalo Bulls visit Penn State Nittany Lions in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. The projection on file reads BUFF 22 – PSU 30, a 8-point edge to Penn State Nittany Lions. DraftKings currently has PSU -40.5 with a total of 49.5.

This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 48.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 52 · Over win probability 53.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Quinton Martin Jr. — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -110
Quinton Martin Jr. scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 52% in the DraftKings price (-110), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Quinton Martin Jr. did not score a touchdown
Chance Morrow — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BUFF
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Chance Morrow scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chance Morrow did not score a touchdown
Chase Sowell — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +155
Chase Sowell scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 39% in the DraftKings price (+155), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Chase Sowell did not score a touchdown
Benjamin Brahmer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
PSU
We project 2Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -130
Benjamin Brahmer scored in 1 of 1 game this season (2 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-130), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Benjamin Brahmer did not score a touchdown