Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State Cyclones

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

BGSU 21 – ISU 29

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ISU -23.5

Sportsbooks make Iowa State Cyclones the favorite by 23.5. Expected combined score: 43.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:07 AM EDT

Our projected score

Bowling Green Falcons logo Bowling Green Falcons21

Iowa State Cyclones logo Iowa State Cyclones29

Final score

Bowling Green Falcons logo Bowling Green Falcons7

Iowa State Cyclones logo Iowa State Cyclones55

ESPNU — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State Cyclones projection

Bowling Green Falcons visit Iowa State Cyclones in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. The projection on file reads BGSU 21 – ISU 29, a 8-point edge to Iowa State Cyclones. DraftKings currently has ISU -23.5 with a total of 43.5.

This projection was stored by an earlier version of our model, and it does not carry the recorded provenance we now keep, so we cannot state which completed games or market numbers produced it. The score above is exactly what is stored; we will not restate inputs we cannot prove.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 43.5 — Over -115 / Under -105.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 50 · Over win probability 59.7%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Leo Kemp — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BGSU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1200
Leo Kemp scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 8% in the DraftKings price (+1200), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Leo Kemp did not score a touchdown
Vince Benetti — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +170
Vince Benetti scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 37% in the DraftKings price (+170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Vince Benetti did not score a touchdown
Austyn Dendy — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BGSU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +205
Austyn Dendy scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 33% in the DraftKings price (+205), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Austyn Dendy did not score a touchdown
Easton Miller — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ISU
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +125
Easton Miller scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 44% in the DraftKings price (+125), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.