Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 26, 2026Final

Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncos

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

BOIS 23 – WMU 31

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

BOIS -7

Sportsbooks make Boise State Broncos the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 50.5

DraftKings · updated Wed, 9:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Boise State Broncos logo Boise State Broncos23

Western Michigan Broncos logo Western Michigan Broncos31

Final score

Boise State Broncos logo Boise State Broncos32

Western Michigan Broncos logo Western Michigan Broncos7

ESPN2 — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026

Preview: Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncos projection

Boise State Broncos visit Western Michigan Broncos in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects BOIS 23 – WMU 31, a 8-point edge to Western Michigan Broncos. DraftKings currently has WMU +7 with a total of 50.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 16 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.67 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.67 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 25 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Sire Gaines — Anytime touchdown: Yes-230DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 10:18 PM EDT · result pending

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jalen Buckley — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WMU
We project 1.27Recent average 0.73 over 9 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -170
Jalen Buckley scored in 2 of 3 games this season and in 5 of 6 games last season (1.27 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 73% chance to score, against 63% in the DraftKings price (-170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jalen Buckley did not score a touchdown
Ryan Brotherton — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WMU
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +1300
Ryan Brotherton scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 7% in the DraftKings price (+1300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Ryan Brotherton did not score a touchdown
Akeem Wright — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BOIS
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +300
Akeem Wright scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 25% in the DraftKings price (+300), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Akeem Wright did not score a touchdown
Rasean Jones — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BOIS
We project 0.67Recent average 0.67 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +140
Rasean Jones scored in 2 of 3 games this season (0.67 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 67% chance to score, against 42% in the DraftKings price (+140), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Rasean Jones did not score a touchdown
Egypt Nelson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
WMU
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +700
Egypt Nelson scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+700), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Egypt Nelson did not score a touchdown
Sire Gaines — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BOIS
We project 0.95Recent average 0.85 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -230
Sire Gaines scored in 3 of 3 games this season and in 4 of 7 games last season (0.95 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 85% chance to score, against 70% in the DraftKings price (-230), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.