Baylor Bears at BYU Cougars

Baylor meets BYU this Saturday, November 14, 2026, with our model finding value on the road underdog. We tracked Baylor at +7.5 on DraftKings when we took the number. Our statistical model projects a 25–21 BYU victory, indicating that Baylor is positioned to cover the tracked spread in a four-point game.

The projection is derived from 42 completed games in the database across the current and discounted prior season. With opponent adjustments applied and an effective sample size of 7.10 weighted games on the thinner side, our independent calculation differed from the market spread by 5.9 points before being blended 40% toward the DraftKings spread and 47.5-point total.

Because the final projection lands well inside the 7.5-point cushion, our model issues a high rating on Baylor +7.5. These outputs reflect probability distributions rather than guaranteed outcomes, but the calibrated numbers point to Baylor keeping the margin closer than the market expects.