Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, September 19, 2026Final

Ball State Cardinals at Liberty Flames

Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

BALL 18 – LIB 32

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

LIB -14

Sportsbooks make Liberty Flames the favorite by 14. Expected combined score: 49.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Ball State Cardinals logo Ball State Cardinals18

Liberty Flames logo Liberty Flames32

Final score

Ball State Cardinals logo Ball State Cardinals15

Liberty Flames logo Liberty Flames51

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Matchup preview · Sep 19, 2026

Preview: Ball State Cardinals at Liberty Flames projection

Ball State Cardinals visit Liberty Flames in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects BALL 18 – LIB 31, a 13-point edge to Liberty Flames. DraftKings currently has LIB -14 with a total of 48.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 12 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.60 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded severe, the projected score is blended 95% toward the DraftKings number of -14 / 48.5, which sat 13.473 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.60 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; score anchored 95% to the DraftKings number (-14 / 48.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Full-game total

DraftKings last quoted 49.5 — Over -105 / Under -115.

Medium

Our projected combined score is 52 · Over win probability 53.8%.

This is a model projection for context, not a recommendation. Only a high-rated total becomes a tracked pick.

No full-game total recommendation was published on this game. no explicit pregame data-quality verdict was recorded.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Jabari Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BALL
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +550
Jabari Smith scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 15% in the DraftKings price (+550), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Darius Copeland — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LIB
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +285
Darius Copeland scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+285), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Darius Copeland did not score a touchdown
Makai Jackson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
LIB
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +175
Makai Jackson scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 36% in the DraftKings price (+175), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Makai Jackson scored a touchdown
Tate Hoover — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BALL
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +310
Tate Hoover scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 24% in the DraftKings price (+310), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Tate Hoover did not score a touchdown
Jalen Bonds — Anytime touchdown: Yes
BALL
We project 1Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +160
Jalen Bonds scored in 1 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 38% in the DraftKings price (+160), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jalen Bonds did not score a touchdown