Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden Flashes
Post-game analysis · Saturday, September 26, 2026
Model projection — no official pick
BALL 30 – KENT 24
This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.
The betting line
KENT -3.5
Sportsbooks make Kent State Golden Flashes the favorite by 3.5. Expected combined score: 50.5
DraftKings · updated Wed, 8:06 PM EDT
Our projected score
Ball State Cardinals30
Kent State Golden Flashes24
Final score
Ball State Cardinals13
Kent State Golden Flashes26
ESPN+ — Local availability can differ.
Matchup preview · Sep 26, 2026
Preview: Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden Flashes projection
Ball State Cardinals visit Kent State Golden Flashes in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Our model projects BALL 30 – KENT 24, a 6-point edge to Ball State Cardinals. DraftKings currently has KENT -3.5 with a total of 50.5.
The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 0.58 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. With no usable DraftKings number on file, the projection rests entirely on those completed scores.
This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: only 0.58 weighted games of history for the thinner side; team form is not measurable yet; the DraftKings observation is 25 hours old; unrated: a projection without a live market number is not a recommendation.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.
Players
No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- BALL
Jabari Smith — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 1Recent average 1 over 1 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +380Jabari Smith scored in 1 of 1 game this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 21% in the DraftKings price (+380), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
- KENT
Terik Mulder — Anytime touchdown: Yes
We project 0.18Recent average 0.18 over 7 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +750Terik Mulder scored in 0 of 3 games this season and in 2 of 4 games last season (0.18 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 18% chance to score, against 12% in the DraftKings price (+750), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NCAA Football, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our College Football record
6-3
66.7% of graded picks covered
Road team
Ball State Cardinals
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Ball State Cardinals picks & results
Home team
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Kent State Golden Flashes picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming College Football games
- KENT at BGSUNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTBGSU -5.5 · pick BGSU -5.5
- WMU at AKRNCAA Football · Tue, 7:00 PM ESTWMU -13.5 · pick AKR +13.5
- OHIO at M-OHNCAA Football · Tue, 8:00 PM ESTM-OH -1.5 · pick OHIO +1.5
- SAC at CMUNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTCMU -15.5 · pick SAC +15.5
- BUFF at BALLNCAA Football · Wed, 7:30 PM ESTBUFF -3 · pick BUFF -3
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