Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

AUB 24 – TENN 31

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

TENN -6

Sportsbooks make Tennessee Volunteers the favorite by 6. Expected combined score: 54.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Auburn Tigers logo Auburn Tigers24

Tennessee Volunteers logo Tennessee Volunteers31

Final score

Auburn Tigers logo Auburn Tigers14

Tennessee Volunteers logo Tennessee Volunteers24

ESPN, ERADM — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers projection

Auburn Tigers visit Tennessee Volunteers in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects AUB 24 – TENN 31, a 7-point edge to Tennessee Volunteers. DraftKings currently has TENN -6.5 with a total of 54.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 14 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.51 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -6.5 / 54.5, which sat 1.485 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.51 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-6.5 / 54.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

Braylon Staley — Anytime touchdown: Yes+190DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 30, 11:18 PM EDT · result loss

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

DeSean Bishop — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TENN
We project 1.11Recent average 0.77 over 10 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -235
DeSean Bishop scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 5 of 6 games last season (1.11 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 77% chance to score, against 70% in the DraftKings price (-235), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: DeSean Bishop scored 3 touchdowns
DeShawn Spencer — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AUB
We project 1Recent average 1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
DeShawn Spencer scored in 2 of 2 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Byrum Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AUB
We project 1Recent average 1 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -135
Byrum Brown scored in 4 of 4 games this season (1 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 95% chance to score, against 57% in the DraftKings price (-135), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Byrum Brown scored a touchdown
Jonathan Echols — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AUB
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +650
Jonathan Echols scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 13% in the DraftKings price (+650), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Jonathan Echols did not score a touchdown
TK Keys — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TENN
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +500
TK Keys scored in 1 of 2 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+500), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
Braylon Staley — Anytime touchdown: Yes
TENN
We project 0.54Recent average 0.5 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +190
Braylon Staley scored in 2 of 4 games this season and in 3 of 6 games last season (0.54 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 34% in the DraftKings price (+190), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Braylon Staley did not score a touchdown