Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned Frogs

Arkansas State Red Wolves visit TCU Horned Frogs in NCAA Football on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Our model projects ARST 19 – TCU 37, a 18-point edge to TCU Horned Frogs. DraftKings currently has TCU -18.5 with a total of 56.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 13 completed home-side and 13 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.54 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -18.5 / 56.5, which sat 2.369 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.54 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-18.5 / 56.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.