Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Coastal Carolina hosts Arkansas State on Saturday in a matchup projected to stay tight from start to finish. When our lines were recorded, we tracked the DraftKings spread at Coastal Carolina -1.5 with a total of 50.5. Our statistical model projects a final score of Coastal Carolina 26, Arkansas State 24, leaning toward a two-point Chanticleers victory.

Under that 26–24 projection, Coastal Carolina covers the -1.5 number we took by a half-point. Because the projected margin of victory is razor-thin and runs closely alongside market expectations, this pick carries a low model rating. Before anchoring, our independent calculation differed from the DraftKings spread by 0.9 points.

The projection is built from 44 completed games across the current and discounted prior seasons—split evenly at 22 games per side—adjusted for opponent strength, resulting in an effective sample size of 7.89 weighted games on the thinner side. To account for market efficiency, the final projection applies a 40% anchor weight to the DraftKings spread and total.