Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

ALA 33 – MSST 29

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

ALA -5.5

Sportsbooks make Alabama Crimson Tide the favorite by 5.5. Expected combined score: 62.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 11:08 AM EDT

Our projected score

Alabama Crimson Tide logo Alabama Crimson Tide33

Mississippi State Bulldogs logo Mississippi State Bulldogs29

Final score

Alabama Crimson Tide logo Alabama Crimson Tide56

Mississippi State Bulldogs logo Mississippi State Bulldogs23

ABC — Local availability can differ.

Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs projection

Alabama Crimson Tide visit Mississippi State Bulldogs in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects ALA 33 – MSST 29, a 4-point edge to Alabama Crimson Tide. DraftKings currently has MSST +5.5 with a total of 62.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 15 completed home-side and 16 completed away-side games are on file, worth 1.64 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of +5.5 / 62.5, which sat 8.21 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 1.64 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (5.5 / 62.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Zion Ragins — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSST
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +275
Zion Ragins scored in 3 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 27% in the DraftKings price (+275), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Zion Ragins scored a touchdown
Sanfrisco Magee — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSST
We project 0.98Recent average 0.78 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +150
Sanfrisco Magee scored in 4 of 4 games this season and in 0 of 1 games last season (0.98 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 78% chance to score, against 40% in the DraftKings price (+150), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Sanfrisco Magee did not score a touchdown
EJ Crowell — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ALA
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +115
EJ Crowell scored in 3 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: EJ Crowell did not score a touchdown
Trae'shawn Brown — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ALA
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +115
Trae'shawn Brown scored in 3 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 47% in the DraftKings price (+115), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Trae'shawn Brown scored 2 touchdowns
Marquis Johnson — Anytime touchdown: Yes
MSST
We project 0.5Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +290
Marquis Johnson scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.5 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 26% in the DraftKings price (+290), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Marquis Johnson did not score a touchdown
Daniel Hill — Anytime touchdown: Yes
ALA
We project 0.94Recent average 0.71 over 11 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -170
Daniel Hill scored in 3 of 4 games this season and in 4 of 7 games last season (0.94 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 71% chance to score, against 63% in the DraftKings price (-170), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Daniel Hill did not score a touchdown