Post-game analysisNCAA FootballSaturday, October 3, 2026Final

Akron Zips at Central Michigan Chippewas

Post-game analysis · Saturday, October 3, 2026

Model projection — no official pick

AKR 20 – CMU 27

This is a model projection only. No side was published for this game and nothing here is counted in our graded record.

The betting line

CMU -7

Sportsbooks make Central Michigan Chippewas the favorite by 7. Expected combined score: 46.5

DraftKings · updated Sat, 3:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Akron Zips logo Akron Zips20

Central Michigan Chippewas logo Central Michigan Chippewas27

Final score

Akron Zips logo Akron Zips17

Central Michigan Chippewas logo Central Michigan Chippewas41

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Matchup preview · Oct 3, 2026

Preview: Akron Zips at Central Michigan Chippewas projection

Akron Zips visit Central Michigan Chippewas in NCAA Football on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Our model projects AKR 20 – CMU 27, a 7-point edge to Central Michigan Chippewas. DraftKings currently has CMU -7 with a total of 47.5.

The only inputs are final scores and schedule dates from the current and prior season, opponent-adjusted, plus the live DraftKings spread and total. 14 completed home-side and 12 completed away-side games are on file, worth 2.25 weighted games on the thinner side after recency decay and a discount on prior-season results. Because that history is graded insufficient, the projected score is blended 85% toward the DraftKings number of -7 / 47.5, which sat 2.542 points from what the completed scores alone implied.

This is a model projection, not an official tracked recommendation. The model rates it unrated, so no side is published and it is not eligible for a tracked pick or a Covered Select. Reasons on file: 2.25 weighted games is below the 3-game minimum for a rated projection; score anchored 85% to the DraftKings number (-7 / 47.5); unrated: the history behind this projection is insufficient, so the score is a market-anchored projection rather than a recommendation.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

No high-rated team recommendation on this matchup. We only show one here when DraftKings posted the number and price and we locked a high-rated recommendation before kickoff.

Players

No high-rated player recommendation on this matchup. We only show one when DraftKings posted the number and price before kickoff.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Nasir Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
CMU
We project 0.75Recent average 0.75 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Nasir Williams scored in 1 of 2 games this season and in 1 of 1 games last season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 75% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Nasir Williams did not score a touchdown
Elijah Alexander — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AKR
We project 0.75Recent average 0.5 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +260
Elijah Alexander scored in 2 of 4 games this season (0.75 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 50% chance to score, against 28% in the DraftKings price (+260), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Elijah Alexander did not score a touchdown
Marquese Williams — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AKR
We project 0.33Recent average 0.33 over 3 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +475
Marquese Williams scored in 1 of 3 games this season (0.33 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 33% chance to score, against 17% in the DraftKings price (+475), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Marquese Williams did not score a touchdown
Brock Townsend — Anytime touchdown: Yes
CMU
We project 0.38Recent average 0.27 over 10 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +360
Brock Townsend scored in 1 of 4 games this season and in 2 of 6 games last season (0.38 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 27% chance to score, against 22% in the DraftKings price (+360), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
HitFinal: Brock Townsend scored a touchdown
Miles Burris — Anytime touchdown: Yes
AKR
We project 0.25Recent average 0.25 over 4 gamesConfidence lowLine DraftKings +390
Miles Burris scored in 1 of 4 games this season (0.25 touchdowns per game after the matchup), and the matchup is roughly neutral. Our model gives him a 25% chance to score, against 20% in the DraftKings price (+390), so the play is Anytime touchdown: Yes.
MissedFinal: Miles Burris did not score a touchdown