Toronto Tempo at Chicago Sky

On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, the Chicago Sky defeated the Toronto Tempo 97–85, comfortably beating our tracked -5.5 spread. The 12-point margin secured a win for the model, which had issued a low-rated recommendation on the home favorites ahead of tipoff.

The model's baseline expectation proved accurate in identifying Chicago as the stronger side, projecting a 93–87 outcome. It read Toronto’s offensive capability particularly well, pegging the Tempo for 87 points against an actual 85. The opponent-adjusted metrics correctly anticipated Toronto struggling to generate enough consistent stops to keep the contest within two possessions.

What the projection missed was the full extent of Chicago’s scoring punch. The Sky outperformed their 93-point forecast by four points, nudging the combined total just over the listed 180.5 line. While our statistical edge was slim at just 0.7 points entering the matchup, Chicago's sharp execution late in the game ensured the cover was never in serious jeopardy.

The Chicago Sky host the Toronto Tempo on Tuesday night in a WNBA matchup where the market has installed Chicago as a 5.5-point home favorite, with the total sitting at 179.5.

Our statistical model projects a final score of Chicago 93, Toronto 87. That yields an opponent-adjusted model margin of 6.6 points, producing a modest 0.7-point edge relative to the -5.5 spread we took on the Sky. Because the difference between the projection and the market line is narrow, the model assigns this play a low rating, though it still tilts toward Chicago covering the tracked number.

These projections are derived from opponent-adjusted ratings across 652 finished games over two seasons, including 327 discounted matchups from last year and 15.55 weighted games of history for each side. While the underlying data leans toward the Sky handling the margin at home, basketball games inherently carry variance, and this projection should be viewed as a measured statistical lean rather than a guarantee.