Portland Fire at Los Angeles Sparks

On Sunday, September 20, 2026, the Los Angeles Sparks pulled away for a dominant 105–84 victory over the Portland Fire. We backed Portland at +3.5 on DraftKings based on a low-rated model edge, but the Fire were never in position down the stretch to threaten the cover, resulting in a clear loss for our pick.

Our model anticipated a tight contest, projecting Los Angeles to edge out an 89–87 win. Portland’s offense finished reasonably close to expectations with 84 points, but the model severely underestimated the Sparks’ offensive firepower. Los Angeles surged well past its 89-point projection, putting up 105 points and blowing the matchup open.

Relying on recent scoring form led the model to expect a competitive, one-possession game, but Los Angeles controlled the tempo and exposed Portland's defensive vulnerabilities throughout the second half. It was a straightforward misread on the defensive matchup and the Sparks' scoring ceiling, leaving our +3.5 position well short of the finish line.