Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun

On Sunday, September 20, 2026, the Minnesota Lynx closed out a 101-89 road victory over the Connecticut Sun. While Minnesota took the straight-up win, Connecticut comfortably covered our tracked +17.5 DraftKings spread, beating the number by 5.5 points.

The model flagged strong value on the Sun, assigning Connecticut +17.5 a high rating based on a projected 89-84 final. The core assessment proved sound: the market had priced in an excessively wide margin. Connecticut generated enough offense on their home floor to keep the final deficit to 12 points, validating the model's stance that the line gave the underdog too much room.

What the model missed was the overall pace and scoring efficiency. Both teams easily eclipsed their modeled outputs, combining for 190 total points against a projected 173. Minnesota’s attack was considerably sharper than the 89 points we anticipated, but the generous 17.5-point cushion absorbed the surge and secured the cover.

The Minnesota Lynx visit the Connecticut Sun this Sunday in WNBA action. When our model evaluated the matchup, the tracked spread sat at +17.5 for the Sun, alongside a game total of 167.5.

Our statistical projection, built on a 21-game sample of recent scoring form for each team, anticipates a much tighter contest than the market line indicates. The model forecasts an 89–84 victory for Minnesota. While that still gives the Lynx the outright edge, the projected five-point margin represents an 11.97-point differential compared to the +17.5 we took on the home underdog.

Because of that sizable gap between the projection and the market, the model assigns a high rating to the Connecticut Sun +17.5. Statistical simulations carry inherent variance and do not guarantee an outcome, but our quantitative baseline finds clear value in backing Connecticut with the points.