Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm

On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the Dallas Wings secured a 103–91 road victory over the Seattle Storm. The outcome goes down as a loss against our tracked number, as Seattle failed to stay within the +9.5 spread backed by our model under a low-confidence rating.

In terms of baseline direction, the model was generally on track regarding who held the advantage. It projected a Dallas victory by an eight-point margin (89–81), correctly identifying the Wings as the superior team despite traveling to Seattle.

Where the projection missed was in its appraisal of the game's tempo and offensive ceiling. Both offenses drastically outperformed expectations, combining for 194 total points compared to the model's 170-point forecast. Dallas’s late scoring push expanded the deficit into double digits, ultimately erasing the 9.5-point cushion we relied on Seattle to defend.

The Dallas Wings visit the Seattle Storm on Wednesday night in WNBA action. Our statistical model projects an opponent-adjusted final score of Dallas 89, Seattle 81, which sits just under the posted total of 170.5.

When we published our numbers, we tracked the Storm at +9.5. With our model projecting an eight-point margin for Dallas, the data indicates Seattle has just enough room to cover the +9.5 spread we took. Because the projected margin of minus-7.0 to minus-8.0 points yields a slim edge of roughly 1.6 points relative to the tracked line, the model assigns this pick a low rating.

The projection is built on an underlying dataset of 654 completed games across two seasons, incorporating 327 discounted games from last year to establish 15.63 weighted games of recent history for both teams. These figures offer an objective statistical baseline for the matchup, though game-to-game variance remains an inherent factor in any model projection.