VCU Rams at Memphis Tigers

On Saturday, November 7, 2026, Memphis held off VCU for an 89-88 victory. While the Tigers secured the outright win on their home court, they failed to cover the tracked -1.5 spread, resulting in a loss for our pick by a half point.

Our model accurately anticipated a tight contest decided on the final possessions, projecting a 77-75 Memphis victory. It correctly identified the razor-thin margin between the two programs and rightfully favored the home side to win outright.

However, the projection missed substantially on the game's tempo and offensive efficiency. Both teams operated well above early-season baselines, combining for 177 points compared to the model's projected 152. Taking Memphis on a low-rated, 0.54-point modeled edge left zero room for variance, and that single-possession gap ultimately cost us against the closing number.

The VCU Rams travel to face the Memphis Tigers on Saturday in an early-season non-conference matchup. Our statistical model expects a competitive, down-to-the-wire contest, projecting a final score of Memphis 77, VCU 75.

With a projected two-point victory for the Tigers, the model produces a slight lean toward the home team against the tracked spread of Memphis -1.5. That creates an edge of roughly 0.54 points in favor of Memphis covering the short number. Across the full game, the model’s 152 combined points also sits several possessions below the posted total of 158.5.

Due to the thin early-season sample size, the simulation relies substantially on broader league baselines to gauge both rosters. Because of that limited current-year data, our model assigns a low rating to this pick. The mathematical lean stays with Memphis at -1.5, but the projection highlights how narrow the separation is expected to be.