South Florida Bulls at DePaul Blue Demons

On Thursday, November 5, 2026, South Florida pushed DePaul to the final possession in an 82–80 defeat, comfortably covering our tracked pick of South Florida +6.5. DePaul held on for the home victory, but the Bulls stayed within two points throughout, delivering a clear win against the closing spread.

Our model flagged strong value on the road underdog before tip-off, projecting a tight 77–76 DePaul edge and assigning the Bulls a high rating. That expectation of a one-possession game matched the actual flow on the court, as neither team managed to pull away significantly in a competitive second half.

The model was slightly conservative on scoring, however. Leaning on thin early-season baseline data, the projection understated both teams' offensive efficiency, allowing the combined score to clear the 149.5 total. Even with that faster pace, the underlying read on how closely these two rosters matched up proved solid.

South Florida visits DePaul on Thursday night in an early-season non-conference matchup. The market opened with the Blue Demons favored by 6.5 points on DraftKings, with the game total sitting at 150.5.

Our statistical model projects a significantly closer battle than the market line indicates, forecasting a 77–76 victory for DePaul. That expected 0.9-point margin creates a 5.62-point edge in favor of the road team against the +6.5 spread we took at publication time. Based on that gap, the model assigns a high rating to South Florida covering the number.

With the season still in its early stages, on-court sample sizes remain thin, so the simulation relies more heavily on broader league baselines. While statistical models reflect probabilistic ranges rather than certain outcomes, the numbers currently suggest South Florida has strong value to stay within two possessions.