McNeese Cowboys at North Texas Mean Green

On Thursday, November 5, 2026, North Texas delivered a clean win for our tracked pick, defeating McNeese 77-67. Backed with a high model rating at +1.5, the Mean Green bypassed the need for the points entirely, securing a 10-point home victory and comfortably beating the spread.

Our model identified a strong edge on the home side, projecting an 83-76 North Texas victory. That read on the margin proved sharp. Despite leaning on early-season baselines, the model correctly anticipated North Texas controlling the matchup against a market consensus that had hovered near a pick'em.

Where the projection missed was total scoring pace. We anticipated a higher-scoring affair totaling 159 points, but the final landed at 144. North Texas's defense proved stingier than projected, holding the Cowboys to 67 points instead of the expected 76. While that defensive clamp did not jeopardize the cover, it showed our model slightly overestimated offensive efficiency out of the gate.

North Texas hosts McNeese on Thursday evening in an early-season non-conference matchup. Our statistical model projects an 83–76 victory for the Mean Green, pointing toward a competitive, higher-scoring contest against the posted total of 143.5.

We took North Texas at +1.5 when the number was tracked, though the market has since moved to North Texas -1.5. With the model projecting a 7.6-point margin of victory for North Texas, the data indicates a 9.1-point edge toward the home side relative to the market. That substantial differential gives North Texas +1.5 a high model rating.

Because the season is just getting underway, the sample of in-season data remains thin, so these projections lean on historical league baselines and baseline efficiency metrics. While statistical models cannot account for every early-season rotation change or shooting variance, the numbers suggest North Texas is well-positioned to cover the +1.5 number we tracked.