Butler Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos

Boise State hosts Butler on Sunday afternoon, with market numbers projecting a tight non-conference matchup. DraftKings lists the Broncos as 1.5-point home favorites, with the game total set at 154.5.

Our statistical model projects an 82–77 victory for Boise State. That translates to an expected 5.1-point winning margin for the home side, creating a 3.56-point edge against the -1.5 spread we tracked when the number was published. With the projected final score clearing the market number by a couple of possessions, the model issues a medium rating on Boise State -1.5 to cover.

Context is essential at this point in the calendar. With a thin sample of data available so far this season, the model leans more on league baselines and program efficiency metrics than recent box scores. These projections reflect statistical probability rather than certainty, but the underlying numbers suggest Boise State holds enough of an advantage on their home floor to clear the short spread.