Bellarmine Knights at Indiana Hoosiers

On Thursday, November 5, 2026, Indiana pulled away for a 92–69 home victory over Bellarmine. Despite the 23-point defeat, our high-rated pick on the Bellarmine Knights +26.5 held on to beat the tracked DraftKings spread.

The model’s read on Bellarmine’s offensive baseline proved remarkably accurate. The projection forecasted the Knights at 70 points, and they finished with 69, generating just enough offense against high-major length to keep their scoring output right on target.

Where the model fell short was underestimating Indiana's offensive ceiling. The simulation projected the Hoosiers to score 81 points, but Indiana surged to 92, stretching the final margin far wider than our projected 11-point gap. While Indiana’s scoring burst made the final minutes tighter against the number than anticipated, the 26.5-point cushion proved wide enough to log a win.

Indiana hosts Bellarmine on Thursday night in early non-conference action. The market expects a lopsided affair, installing the Hoosiers as heavy 26.5-point favorites with a game total set at 153.5. Looking at the matchup, our statistical model points toward taking Bellarmine at +26.5.

The model projects an 81–70 victory for Indiana. While the Hoosiers are favored to win by roughly 10.8 points, that projected margin is far narrower than the market spread. The difference between our projected score and the market number generates a 15.74-point edge in favor of the Knights covering the spread.

Because early-season data is naturally thin, the model leans more on league baselines and structural ratings. A high model rating highlights a sizable statistical divergence from the market rather than any guaranteed outcome, but the projections suggest Bellarmine can maintain enough pace to stay within the generous 26.5-point cushion.