Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
Post-game analysis · Saturday, November 7, 2026
The pick
Take Indiana Pacers +7.5
Indiana Pacers is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 7.5 points.
Pick locked in: Nov 6, 2026 · 9:09 PM EST — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
DEN -7.5
Sportsbooks make Denver Nuggets the favorite by 7.5. Expected combined score: 229.5
DraftKings · updated Sat, 4:09 PM EST
Our projected score
Denver Nuggets114
Indiana Pacers115
Final score
Denver Nuggets114
Indiana Pacers102
Pick missed
NBA TV, DAZN IND — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Nov 7, 2026
Post-game: Nuggets Top Pacers as Indiana Fails to Cover +7.5
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, the Indiana Pacers fell 114–102 to the visiting Denver Nuggets, failing to cover the +7.5 spread we tracked at DraftKings. We backed Indiana as a high-confidence home underdog, but Denver controlled the second half to deliver a clear loss for our pick.
The model showed remarkable precision on one side of the floor, projecting Denver to score exactly 114 points. However, it severely miscalculated Indiana's offensive output. The projection anticipated the Pacers scoring 115 points based on their recent scoring form, but Indiana managed only 102 against a disciplined Denver defense.
That 13-point shortfall on Indiana's side completely erased our projected edge and pushed the final 12-point margin well beyond the 7.5-point cushion. It is a sobering reminder of single-game offensive variance, and we will continue adjusting our model's weighting as more seasonal data accumulates.
Matchup preview · Nov 7, 2026
Preview: Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers host the Denver Nuggets on Saturday evening, with the market framing Denver as a clear road favorite. When we published our projection, we took Indiana at +7.5 on DraftKings against a total of 228.5. Our model evaluated both teams across 13 and 12 games of recent scoring form to determine whether the market is giving the visitors too much credit.
The statistical model projects a much closer contest than the market implies, forecasting a 115–114 final in favor of Indiana. That represents a 1.6-point margin toward the home side and translates to a 9.06-point edge relative to the +7.5 spread we tracked. Because of that sizable disparity between the projection and the betting line, the model assigns this pick a high rating.
Projections reflect baseline probabilities rather than certain outcomes, but the data suggests Indiana is well-positioned to remain competitive throughout. With the simulation numbers pointing toward an outright contest that goes down to the wire, we back the Pacers to cover the +7.5 number.
How the model got here
Model projects 114–115, a 1.6 margin against a market number of -7.5 — a 9.06-point edge toward the home side. Based on 13 and 12 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Indiana Pacers +7.5
- DraftKings +7.5 · tracked Fri, 9:08 PM EST
- Locked price -114
- Rating high
- Locked Nov 6, 9:09 PM EST — before kickoff
- Result loss
Players
- Christian Braun over 12.5 points-126DraftKings line 12.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 1:18 AM EST · result loss
- Aaron Gordon over 2.5 assists-103DraftKings line 2.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 1:18 AM EST · result loss
- Kelly Oubre Jr. under 3.5 rebounds-135DraftKings line 3.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 6:18 AM EST · result pending
- Andrew Nembhard over 7.5 assists+104DraftKings line 7.5 · rating high · line recorded Nov 7, 6:18 AM EST · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- DEN · G
Jamal Murray over 22.5 points
We project 41Recent average 34.7 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -112Jamal Murray has averaged 34.7 points over 4 games this season. The DraftKings line is 22.5; our matchup-adjusted projection is 41.
Leans the same way at a different number. Tracked at over 22.5. The current line has moved to 23.5. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- IND · F
Pascal Siakam under 6.5 rebounds
We project 4.6Recent average 4.8 over 4 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings +100Pascal Siakam has averaged 4.8 rebounds over 4 games this season. The DraftKings line is 6.5; our matchup-adjusted projection is 4.6.
HitFinal: Pascal Siakam 2 rebounds
- DEN · G
Christian Braun over 12.5 points
We project 20.4Recent average 17.3 over 5 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -126Christian Braun has averaged 17.3 points over 5 games this season. The DraftKings line is 12.5; our matchup-adjusted projection is 20.4.
MissedFinal: Christian Braun 6 points
- DEN · F
Aaron Gordon over 2.5 assists
We project 3.7Recent average 3.2 over 5 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -103Aaron Gordon has averaged 3.2 assists over 5 games this season. The DraftKings line is 2.5; our matchup-adjusted projection is 3.7.
MissedFinal: Aaron Gordon 0 assists
- IND · G
Kelly Oubre Jr. under 3.5 rebounds
We project 2.6Recent average 2.7 over 5 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -135Kelly Oubre Jr. has averaged 2.7 rebounds over 5 games this season. The DraftKings line is 3.5; our matchup-adjusted projection is 2.6.
Still qualifies at the current line. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
- IND · G
Andrew Nembhard over 7.5 assists
We project 9.4Recent average 8 over 5 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings +104Andrew Nembhard has averaged 8 assists over 5 games this season. The DraftKings line is 7.5; our matchup-adjusted projection is 9.4.
HitFinal: Andrew Nembhard 8 assists
Records & form
How our picks have graded in NBA, plus how both teams have actually played.
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