Post-game analysisMLBFriday, September 18, 2026Final

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

Post-game analysis · Friday, September 18, 2026

The pick

Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

St. Louis Cardinals is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 17, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

WSH -1.5

Sportsbooks make Washington Nationals the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 8

DraftKings · updated Fri, 8:07 PM EDT

Our projected score

Washington Nationals logo Washington Nationals5

St. Louis Cardinals logo St. Louis Cardinals6

Final score

Washington Nationals logo Washington Nationals9

St. Louis Cardinals logo St. Louis Cardinals1

Pick missed

MLB.TV, Cardinals.TV, Nationals.TV — Local availability can differ.

Post-game analysis · Sep 18, 2026

Post-game: Nationals Rout Cardinals as St. Louis +1.5 Falls Flat

On Friday, September 18, 2026, the Washington Nationals dismantled the St. Louis Cardinals 9–1, handing our high-rated pick on St. Louis +1.5 an emphatic loss. Washington dominated from start to finish, rendering our 1.5-run cushion irrelevant as the Cardinals failed to keep the contest remotely competitive.

Our statistical model projected a tight, higher-scoring 6–5 victory for St. Louis, finding what appeared to be a strong edge based on recent multi-week scoring form. The model was right to anticipate Washington generating runs, but it completely missed the mark on St. Louis's capabilities. Rather than keeping pace in a back-and-forth affair, the Cardinals' bats went cold, managing just a lone run while their pitching surrendered nine.

There is no need to make excuses for a play that misses by seven runs. The model clearly overestimated the Cardinals' run production and underestimated Washington's command on the mound. It goes down as a decisive loss against our tracked number, and we adjust our ratings heading into Saturday's slate.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–6, a 0.3 margin against a market number of -1.5 — a 1.83-point edge toward the home side. Based on 29 and 27 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Thu, 4:07 PM EDT
Locked price -199
Rating high
Locked Sep 17, 4:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
Result loss

Players

Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits-200DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 2:18 AM EDT · result win
Joshua Baez over 0.5 hits-163DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 2:18 AM EDT · result pending
Brady House over 0.5 hits-206DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 2:18 AM EDT · result win
Dylan Crews over 0.5 hits-159DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 18, 2:18 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Keibert Ruiz over 0.5 hits
WSH · C
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 5 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -184
Keibert Ruiz has averaged 1.4 hits over 5 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-184), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Kyle Leahy over 2.5 strikeouts
STL · SP
We project 4.6Recent average 4.6 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -145
Kyle Leahy has averaged 4.6 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 2.5 (-145), and our model projects 4.6 — 2.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Kyle Leahy 1 strikeouts
Ivan Herrera over 0.5 hits
STL · DH
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -200
Ivan Herrera has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-200), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ivan Herrera 1 hits
Joshua Baez over 0.5 hits
STL · LF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -163
Joshua Baez has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-163), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
Current DraftKings market unavailable. DraftKings has withdrawn or paused this market. The official pick stays tracked and graded at its locked number. Not used in new parlays or new social posts. Advisory only. The official pick and our published record do not change: the result is still graded against the line and price exactly as they were locked.
Brady House over 0.5 hits
WSH · 3B
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -206
Brady House has averaged 1.3 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-206), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Brady House 1 hits
Dylan Crews over 0.5 hits
WSH · RF
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -159
Dylan Crews has averaged 1.1 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-159), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Dylan Crews 2 hits