Post-game analysisMLBWednesday, September 23, 2026Final

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Post-game analysis · Wednesday, September 23, 2026

The pick

Take Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

Toronto Blue Jays is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.

Pick locked in: Sep 23, 2026 · 12:43 AM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.

Scoring tier: high

The betting line

BAL -1.5

Sportsbooks make Baltimore Orioles the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 7

DraftKings · updated Wed, 1:08 PM EDT

Our projected score

Toronto Blue Jays logo Toronto Blue Jays5

Baltimore Orioles logo Baltimore Orioles4

Final score

Toronto Blue Jays logo Toronto Blue Jays2

Baltimore Orioles logo Baltimore Orioles4

Pick missed

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Post-game analysis · Sep 23, 2026

Post-game: Blue Jays fail to cover against Orioles

On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the Baltimore Orioles took down the Toronto Blue Jays 4–2. We tracked Toronto at +1.5 on the run line as a high-rated pick from our statistical model, expecting a tight contest where the road side held an edge. Because Toronto lost by two runs, the pick failed to cover the tracked spread and goes down as a loss.

The model did well anticipating Baltimore's offensive output, nailing the Orioles' four-run total exactly. However, the projection missed badly on Toronto’s offense. We projected five runs for the Blue Jays based on recent multi-game scoring trends, but Toronto generated only two, never finding the extra punch needed to stay within the 1.5-run cushion.

Backing run-line underdogs leaves little margin for error when the bats go quiet. We fell short on this read, and the data from this matchup will feed directly back into our model as it adjusts for upcoming slates.

Matchup preview · Sep 23, 2026

Preview: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

The Toronto Blue Jays visit the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday afternoon, entering as road underdogs in an American League East matchup. When lines opened, the number we took was Toronto at +1.5 on DraftKings, set against a game total of 7 runs.

Our statistical model forecasts a close contest with an outright road advantage, projecting a final score of Toronto 5, Baltimore 4. With the model favoring the Blue Jays by a run, it calculates a 1.56-run edge in Toronto's favor compared to the tracked +1.5 spread. Based on 34 games of scoring form for Toronto and 32 for Baltimore, our system assigns a high rating to this spot.

Given the projection of five runs on the road, our model sees value backing Toronto to keep the final margin within the run line or win outright. While statistical projections capture tendencies rather than guarantees, the numbers favor Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 at the tracked price.

How the model got here

Model projects 5–4, a -0.1 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 1.56-point edge toward the road side. Based on 34 and 32 games of scoring form.

Our recommendations on this game

The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.

Team

Take Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Wed, 12:27 AM EDT
Locked price -206
Rating high
Locked Sep 23, 12:43 AM EDT — before kickoff
Result loss

Players

Coby Mayo over 0.5 hits-135DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 5:18 AM EDT · result loss
Christian Encarnacion-Strand over 0.5 hits-159DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 5:18 AM EDT · result win
Nathan Lukes over 0.5 hits-205DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:07 AM EDT · result win
George Springer over 0.5 hits-198DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 23, 8:07 AM EDT · result win

This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.

Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.

Player prop angles

Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.

Max Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts
TOR · SP
We project 5.7Recent average 5.7 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -101
Max Scherzer has averaged 5.7 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 4.5 (-101), and our model projects 5.7 — 1.2 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Max Scherzer 7 strikeouts
Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts
BAL · SP
We project 5.1Recent average 5.1 over 2 gamesConfidence mediumLine DraftKings -133
Chris Bassitt has averaged 5.1 strikeouts over 2 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 3.5 (-133), and our model projects 5.1 — 1.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Chris Bassitt 2 strikeouts
Coby Mayo over 0.5 hits
BAL · 3B
We project 1.1Recent average 1.1 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -135
Coby Mayo has averaged 1.1 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-135), and our model projects 1.1 — 0.6 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Coby Mayo 0 hits
Christian Encarnacion-Strand over 0.5 hits
BAL · 3B
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -159
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-159), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1 hits
Nathan Lukes over 0.5 hits
TOR · RF
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -205
Nathan Lukes has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-205), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Nathan Lukes 1 hits
George Springer over 0.5 hits
TOR · DH
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -198
George Springer has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-198), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: George Springer 1 hits