Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The pick
Take Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
Tampa Bay Rays is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
NYY -1.5
Sportsbooks make New York Yankees the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 6.5
DraftKings · updated Tue, 12:07 PM EDT
Our projected score
Tampa Bay Rays4
New York Yankees5
Final score
Tampa Bay Rays0
New York Yankees2
Pick missed
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Post-game analysis · Sep 22, 2026
Post-game: Yankees Blank Rays 2-0 to Beat the Spread
On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, the New York Yankees shut out the Tampa Bay Rays 2-0 in the Bronx. Because New York secured a two-run margin of victory, our high-rated pick on Tampa Bay +1.5 went down as a loss, falling a half-run short of covering the tracked run line.
Our model was directionally correct in expecting a tightly contested Yankees win, but it completely misread the scoring environment. We projected a 5–4 finish based on recent team scoring trends, anticipating nine combined runs. Instead, elite pitching ruled the day, staying well below the 6.5 market total.
The projection's primary failure was counting on the road lineup. The model anticipated Tampa Bay producing around four runs, but the Rays' bats were neutralized for nine innings. That lack of production broke the play entirely. It is a frustrating miss on a top-rated projection, and we take the loss on the ledger as we refine our inputs.
Matchup preview · Sep 22, 2026
Preview: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Bronx on Tuesday afternoon to face the New York Yankees. DraftKings opened with the standard run line favoring New York, but our simulation suggests this division matchup could be considerably tighter than that market margin implies.
Evaluating 31 games of scoring form for Tampa Bay and 32 games for New York, the CoveredSports statistical model projects a 5–4 Yankees victory. While New York holds the outright edge, the model's projected margin is roughly 0.6 runs, indicating that Tampa Bay's offense is equipped to keep the contest competitive throughout.
That distribution creates a 0.92-point edge toward the road side against the market number, giving this projection a high rating in our system. We took the Tampa Bay Rays at +1.5 on the tracked spread. Baseball outcomes always carry inherent game-to-game variance, but the underlying data indicates Tampa Bay has a strong statistical case to cover the run line.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.6 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.92-point edge toward the road side. Based on 31 and 32 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Mon, 4:08 PM EDT
- Locked price -207
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 21, 4:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result loss
Players
- Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hits-244DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 5:18 PM EDT · result win
- Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits-146DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 5:18 PM EDT · result win
- Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits-141DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 5:18 PM EDT · result win
- Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-206DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 5:18 PM EDT · result win
- Yandy Diaz over 0.5 hits-226DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 5:18 PM EDT · result loss
- Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits-202DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 21, 5:18 PM EDT · result win
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TB · LF
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hits
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -244Chandler Simpson has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-244), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Chandler Simpson 1 hits
- TB · 1B
Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -146Jonathan Aranda has averaged 1.3 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-146), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Jonathan Aranda 1 hits
- NYY · CF
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -141Spencer Jones has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-141), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Spencer Jones 1 hits
- NYY · DH
Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -206Ben Rice has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-206), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Ben Rice 1 hits
- TB · DH
Yandy Diaz over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -226Yandy Diaz has averaged 1.5 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-226), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Yandy Diaz 0 hits
- NYY · LF
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -202Cody Bellinger has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-202), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Cody Bellinger 1 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our MLB record
107-68
61.1% of graded picks covered
Road team
Tampa Bay Rays
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Tampa Bay Rays picks & results
Home team
New York Yankees
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all New York Yankees picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
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