Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Post-game analysis · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The pick
Take Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
Tampa Bay Rays is the underdog: your bet wins if they win outright or lose by fewer than 1.5 points.
Pick locked in: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:08 PM EDT — sportsbook spreads can move after that time, so check the number your book is offering now.
Scoring tier: high
The betting line
NYY -1.5
Sportsbooks make New York Yankees the favorite by 1.5. Expected combined score: 6
DraftKings · updated Tue, 6:08 PM EDT
Our projected score
Tampa Bay Rays4
New York Yankees5
Final score
Tampa Bay Rays6
New York Yankees1
Pick covered
MLB.TV, TBS, Rays.TV — Local availability can differ.
Post-game analysis · Sep 22, 2026
Post-game: Rays cover and top Yankees in 6-1 victory
On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, the Tampa Bay Rays secured an outright 6-1 road victory over the New York Yankees. With the Rays winning comfortably, our high-rated pick on Tampa Bay at +1.5 beat the tracked DraftKings spread without drama.
The model correctly flagged value on the road underdog. Heading into the game, our numbers projected a tight 5-4 contest in New York's favor, identifying a meaningful 0.92-point edge on Tampa Bay keeping things within the 1.5-run cushion. Backing the Rays to stay competitive against the market expectation proved to be the right side.
However, the projection missed the actual flow of the game. We anticipated a higher-scoring affair where New York generated five runs, but Tampa Bay's pitching completely suppressed the Yankees' bats to just a single run. At the same time, the Rays exceeded their projected four-run total. We will take the win against the spread, but the individual team run totals were notably off the mark.
Matchup preview · Sep 22, 2026
Preview: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees on Tuesday night for an AL East matchup that our statistical model expects to remain tight. Our projection lands on a 5–4 victory for New York. While the market total sits at 6.5, the model anticipates slightly more offensive output based on both teams' recent profiles, with New York holding a narrow upper hand at home.
We took the Rays at +1.5 on the tracked DraftKings spread. Even with the Yankees projected to win straight up, our expected margin of victory is just 0.6 runs. That creates a 0.92-point edge toward the road underdog against the 1.5-run line, pointing to value on Tampa Bay staying within a single run or winning outright.
Backed by 31 and 32 games of scoring form for Tampa Bay and New York respectively, this projection earns a high rating from the model. As always, these statistical outputs indicate probabilistic edges rather than certain outcomes, but the numbers suggest Tampa Bay is well-positioned to cover the +1.5 cushion in the Bronx.
How the model got here
Model projects 4–5, a 0.6 margin against a market number of 1.5 — a 0.92-point edge toward the road side. Based on 31 and 32 games of scoring form.
Our recommendations on this game
The team recommendation, the full-game total and the player recommendations for this matchup, side by side. The full-game total is its own market, shown in its own panel above. Only high-rated recommendations taken at a locked DraftKings price are used on a parlay card, and a card never takes two legs from the same game.
Team
Take Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
- DraftKings +1.5 · tracked Mon, 4:08 PM EDT
- Locked price -207
- Rating high
- Locked Sep 21, 4:08 PM EDT — before kickoff
- Result win
Players
- Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hits-235DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 3:08 PM EDT · result win
- Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits-170DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 3:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits-140DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 3:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Ben Rice over 0.5 hits-197DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 3:08 PM EDT · result loss
- Yandy Diaz over 0.5 hits-227DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 3:08 PM EDT · result win
- Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits-196DraftKings line 0.5 · rating high · line recorded Sep 22, 3:08 PM EDT · result loss
This game has started, so these are historical recommendations kept exactly as they were recorded. They can no longer be used on a parlay card.
Information only, not betting advice. See today's parlay cards · Play responsibly.
Player prop angles
Our model projects individual stat lines from each player's recent games and the matchup in front of them, then compares that projection to the live sportsbook number. Where a book has not posted a prop yet, the line shown is our own.
- TB · LF
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hits
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -235Chandler Simpson has averaged 1.3 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-235), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Chandler Simpson 1 hits
- TB · 1B
Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits
We project 1.3Recent average 1.3 over 8 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -170Jonathan Aranda has averaged 1.3 hits over 8 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-170), and our model projects 1.3 — 0.8 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Jonathan Aranda 0 hits
- NYY · CF
Spencer Jones over 0.5 hits
We project 0.9Recent average 0.9 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -140Spencer Jones has averaged 0.9 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-140), and our model projects 0.9 — 0.4 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Spencer Jones 0 hits
- NYY · DH
Ben Rice over 0.5 hits
We project 1.6Recent average 1.6 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -197Ben Rice has averaged 1.6 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-197), and our model projects 1.6 — 1.1 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Ben Rice 0 hits
- TB · DH
Yandy Diaz over 0.5 hits
We project 1.5Recent average 1.5 over 9 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -227Yandy Diaz has averaged 1.5 hits over 9 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-227), and our model projects 1.5 — 1 above the number, so the play is the over.
HitFinal: Yandy Diaz 2 hits
- NYY · LF
Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits
We project 1.4Recent average 1.4 over 10 gamesConfidence highLine DraftKings -196Cody Bellinger has averaged 1.4 hits over 10 games this season, and the matchup is roughly neutral. The DraftKings line is 0.5 (-196), and our model projects 1.4 — 0.9 above the number, so the play is the over.
MissedFinal: Cody Bellinger 0 hits
Records & form
How our picks have graded in MLB, plus how both teams have actually played.
Our MLB record
107-68
61.1% of graded picks covered
Road team
Tampa Bay Rays
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all Tampa Bay Rays picks & results
Home team
New York Yankees
Record 0-0
Against the spread 0-0
See all New York Yankees picks & results
Today's games
- CHE at SUNPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- LIV at CRYPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BOU at IPSPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- BRE at BHAPremier League · Sun, 9:00 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
- CIN at ATLNFL · Sun, 9:30 AM ESTCIN -3 · pick CIN -3
- AVL at MANPremier League · Sun, 11:30 AM ESTAwaiting DraftKings line · projection only
Upcoming MLB games
No other MLB games scheduled right now.
Popular games from other leagues
Our strongest upcoming calls outside MLB.